Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.007248 0.008163 0.009164 0.010342 0.011693 0.013199 0.015009
2024-10-27 0.005643 0.006844 0.008273 0.010106 0.012411 0.015231 0.018972
2024-11-03 0.004866 0.006197 0.007869 0.010143 0.013188 0.017165 0.022824
2024-11-10 0.004462 0.005916 0.007828 0.010559 0.014415 0.019743 0.027805
2024-11-17 0.003962 0.005426 0.007425 0.010398 0.014785 0.021140 0.031273
2024-11-24 0.003621 0.005105 0.007201 0.010435 0.015402 0.022921 0.035508
2024-12-01 0.003271 0.004729 0.006848 0.010223 0.015595 0.024048 0.038834
2024-12-08 0.003083 0.004567 0.006787 0.010435 0.016452 0.026294 0.044292
2024-12-15 0.002866 0.004340 0.006600 0.010420 0.016923 0.027945 0.048937
2024-12-22 0.002583 0.003983 0.006175 0.009968 0.016604 0.028194 0.051058
2024-12-29 0.002415 0.003793 0.006000 0.009913 0.016953 0.029645 0.055625
2025-01-05 0.002367 0.003794 0.006132 0.010392 0.018298 0.033059 0.064556
2025-01-12 0.002160 0.003518 0.005788 0.010014 0.018059 0.033520 0.067670
2025-01-19 0.001995 0.003302 0.005530 0.009772 0.018057 0.034456 0.071990
2025-01-26 0.001891 0.003184 0.005431 0.009809 0.018594 0.036537 0.079186
2025-02-02 0.001850 0.003172 0.005520 0.010209 0.019902 0.040389 0.091173
2025-02-09 0.001734 0.003017 0.005334 0.010054 0.020044 0.041747 0.097411
2025-02-16 0.001654 0.002920 0.005248 0.010089 0.020589 0.044070 0.106497
2025-02-23 0.001552 0.002774 0.005056 0.009885 0.020586 0.045126 0.112460
2025-03-02 0.001506 0.002731 0.005059 0.010090 0.021517 0.048510 0.125398
2025-03-09 0.001438 0.002642 0.004964 0.010075 0.021941 0.050721 0.135495
2025-03-16 0.001331 0.002468 0.004688 0.009640 0.021333 0.050266 0.137716
2025-03-23 0.001270 0.002384 0.004588 0.009587 0.021633 0.052186 0.147513